Intro – “The Big Scary Thing”™
Once every ten years, the world breaks. Nassim Nicholas Taleb refers to these as Black Swans, but I’m not a philosopher, so I call it “The Big Scary Thing”. Here’s the thing about the Big Scary Thing: no one sees it coming. Do you know how many experts were worried about a terrorist attack on September 10th, 2001? Not a single one. If you go back to newscasts on the day before the attacks, you’ll see what people were worried about instead: wild high school parties, Michael Jordan, and the New York Giants. Then 9/11 happened, and everyone forgot about the stripper performing for high schoolers.
That’s what happens with the Big Scary Thing; the telltale signs are all there, but no one can connect the dots before it happens. And when it finally happens, the Big Scary Thing seems obvious in retrospect.
Everyone Misses the Big Scary Thing (Until It Eats the Room)
9/11 was an inflection point in modern history, and most people ignored or underestimated the telltale signs that suggested that such a climactic event was going to happen. We were busy worrying about whether Ross and Rachel were on a break, not about cockpit door locks. At the time, airport security was basically just a guy who nodded at you while eating a muffin. Then the Big Scary Thing happened, and it changed everything. Travel changed forever, mass surveillance became normalized, terror alerts became a feature, and the War on Terror started.
The Cycle of Disaster
There’s something else when it comes to The Big Scary Thing: it tends to repeat itself. As newer generations replace older ones, they’ll forget about past events because they just weren’t there. The complacency we saw before 9/11 was similar to the one before Pearl Harbor. Despite living in a world of progress, a disaster happens once a decade. It’s not history repeating itself, it’s human nature repeating itself. Denial, overconfidence, fear, and control will remain constant throughout history as long as we’re on this planet. Here’s how the disaster cycle goes:
Warning signs → underreaction → overreaction → transformation
Like Netflix, history doesn’t exactly repeat itself, but it reboots, usually darker and with worse reviews. Examples include the 1929 crash and the 2008 housing crisis, or the Spanish Flu and COVID-19. Every new crisis is just the same plot with upgraded tech and more ads.
How to Prepare for the Thing You Can’t Prepare For
What fascinates me about this topic is that we know the world changes dramatically in an instant, and that somewhat tragic moment will have ramifications that will last for at least a decade. So, how can we prepare for the unexpected, and how can we deal with something that we can’t, by definition, predict? First, we must be comfortable knowing that we can’t predict what’s about to happen. On a personal level, you should diversify your skills and save, knowing that you might need that money one day. Build an emergency fund, not because you know what’s coming, but because the universe loves plot twists.
Second, study history, not just so you sound smart at parties, but so you can panic with perspective. Once you identify the pattern we discussed, you’ll recognize it and act more wisely among the chaos because you’ve seen it (or read about it) before. Studying history also keeps you humble because you’re learning new things all the time. More importantly, use the calm, stable years to develop relationships, learn new things, and prepare for the worst. When a new crisis hits, it will impact governments, economies, and societies. The most important thing it will impact, though, is your values. Will your identity and purpose remain the same even if your finances crash?
Conclusion – The Calm Before the Next Weird
The news gives the impression that the world’s on fire all the time; that’s how they keep ratings up. Nevertheless, nothing huge is happening at the time of this writing. At least, not something as big as COVID-19 or a worldwide recession from 2008. The bad news? Something bad is around the corner, and even though the signs are all there, no one will be able to predict it. Luckily, you probably have enough time to prepare for The Big Scary Thing. Use that time wisely.